WE’VE ALL SEEN THE MOVIES with aliens of all kinds. They cover the spectrum from benign
to vicious killers. From incredibly intelligent to mindless brutes.
However they have been portrayed, they have been the product of human
imagination with all its limitations and the ever present
anthropomorphic input. What will real aliens from far off worlds be
like? How will they think? Most importantly, what…will they want?
We can hope that all they want is to invite us to join the Galactic
Federation and their arrival is like an interstellar welcome wagon
replete with cleaning products from far flung exotic spots in the
growing Federation.
I was recently accosted by
a slavering individual flailing the Fermi
Paradox and grumbling, “Oh yeah, smart
ass, if aliens exist, where the hell are they?” The reason for
this attack was that I had posted an article about NASA’s progress
on their Alcubierre
warp drive device for interstellar
travel on a popular social media site. I had the unmitigated gall to
suggest that we might one day venture forth and shake an alien
tentacle—or whatever, and he was having none of that. According to
his reckoning, if warp drive were even slightly possible, certainly
the aliens would have figured that out long before we could. In his
view, aliens must predate us by thousands, if not gazillions of
years. Everybody, he averred, knows this to be true and immutable.
With that logic, he knew that we should be hosting state dinners for
various alien visitors every week or so and…well, we’re not, so
it’s obvious it doesn’t work. Fermi was right. He was sure of
that. There are no aliens. We are all there is. End of
conversation. I will give him credit for one thing; he was at least
not one of those UFO nuts telling me that the lizards
are walking among us in human guise and controlling the Illuminati.
So, in spite of his skepticism, he was at least tolerable.
Forced into a corner by
this minute minded maniac, I had but one option; whip out one of
those famous Jacobs logical arguments to destroy his assault and
reduce him to quivering biological muck. I had to think fast because
I didn’t have one available right off the top. This was a
potentially embarrassing situation. To say he had taken exception to
my presentation is being polite—too polite, and if I didn’t come
up with something quick, he would be at the advantage. Anyway, as
thoughts began percolating to the surface and organizing themselves
into useful order, I crouched into my well trained ninja Science
Fiction writer’s attack stance and prepared myself for bloody
conflict.
“Friend,” said I, “it
is first important that you understand Fermi never said that there
are no aliens, nor is he the source of that paper you’re waving in
my face. You can thank Michael
Hart for that. Now, let us approach
this in a more civilized manner, okay?”
He grunted something that
sounded like agreement, so I began.
“We can agree that our
local neighborhood is rather large, right?”
“Yeah, so?”
“So, in 1898, Marconi
sent the first radio signal over a distance of 18 miles. That was
when Earth first became radio-active. It was a feeble signal that
probably couldn’t have been detected by a super sensitive receiver
on the lunar surface, let alone outside our solar system. Another 40
years would have to pass before we would be spewing out radio waves
that could be conceivably detected over distances of light years.”
From the look on his face, it was obvious I hadn’t made much of an
impression. Yet. I was just getting warmed up.
“What’s that got to do
with nonexistent aliens?” he countered.
“A lot,” I said.
“Now, remember that I said our neck of the woods is a pretty big
place. That means that there are a lot of stars, many of them with
planets, and some of those planets are within the habitable zones of
their stars. You with me so far?”
“Of course I am. I’m
no idiot, ya know.”
“Right,” I said,
“you’re no idiot. Anyway, we have to make some assumptions in
order to discuss this. Is that all right with you?”
“Assumptions? I thought
you knew something about this. Why assumptions?”
“Look, we’re talking
about things that have no precedent here. We have to make some
assumptions. Hell, Fermi had to make some assumptions to propose his
paradox, and that was aimed at refuting Drake’s
equation for which Drake had made a
number of assumptions as well. In spite of the assumptions regarding
Drake’s equation, it is a viable posit, unlike the Fermi thing.
It’s obvious to me that those Hart assumptions were okay with you,
so why not mine? Shall I continue?”
“Yeah yeah, assume away,
but hurry up, I got stuff to do.”
“I’m sure you do. All
right, now, our first assumption is that there is an alien
intelligence in our neighborhood, and they have existed long enough
without killing themselves off to have arrived at the coveted Type
I civilization. Something, I should add,
that we may not manage to do if we keep on with our tribal,
superstitious nonsense and don’t come to realize we are all glued
to a fragile space ship careening through space. Dangerous space.
“Having said that, the
next assumption is that this intelligent life has been fortunate
enough to evolve into a species capable of manipulating their
environment and is something like us. Oh, not human, but their world
has provided similar conditions to those of Earth that allowed a
similar biology to flourish. That means their world and their sun
should be a close analog. The most recent discovery of a reasonable
match is Kepler
452b that is roughly 1400 light years
away.”
My guest fidgeted
uncomfortably. “Aw, man, why so far away?”
“Because that’s what
we’ve found that fits the bill — at least so far. Remember,
anything with greater gravity is going to make it more difficult to
get into space, but the range of error says it could be as low as a
couple of points greater all the way up to double that of Earth. For
our hypothetical, we are going to assume the lower end of the range
so our critters can get off the ground. So far, most of what we’ve
found that might harbor life are large, massive planets. Kepler 452b
is larger than Earth and its mass may be as much as five times
greater, meaning its gravity may be twice that of Earth. Still
workable at that gravity, but barely. At this stage, Kepler 452b is
the best we have. Okay?”
“I guess. Still doesn’t
prove there’s aliens out there. Go on.”
“No one can prove
there is alien intelligence out there without
evidence, just as no one can prove there
is not. I’m just making a case for the possibility against Fermi’s
assumption to the contrary. That all right with you?”
“I suppose.”
“Okay. It is thought
that Kepler 452b may have been in existence 1.5 billion years longer
than Earth. That means that there is a potential that any life there
has had that much longer to evolve. We have to now assume they have
had enough time to become space faring. Let’s say that these folks
have already inhabited all the inhabitable and marginally inhabitable
places available in their system and that they are looking around
their neighborhood for other possible locations where life might
exist. This is something of a stretch because it is an
anthropomorphic point of view, which could easily be way off base.
This is what the old Fermi paradox thing did, but being aliens, who
knows how and what they think; what their motivations are? It is
conceivable that they have no interest in anything outside their
system or even their own planet. However, for this discussion, we’ll
go ahead and make this assumption. They are explorer types. Alien
Magellans. That it is reasonable to expect the Pinta, the Niña, and
the Santa Maria to loom on the horizon at any moment.
“We’ll also assume
they have had their own counterpart to Alcubierre and have perfected
a warp drive—meaning they are well on their way to being a Type II
civilization. Their searches of the heavens have revealed several
possible targets for investigation and we will assume that Sol/Earth
happens to be among them, but it’s not the closest. Because of
that, the only thing that would draw their attention to our planet
would be signals. Signs of intelligence. So, what that means is
that they would perk up their ears, or whatever it is they use for
their auditory senses, in about 1300+ years when the Bob
Hope Christmas Show with Dagwood and
Blondie tickled their antennas. That is to say, they won’t be
hearing from us for a goodly long time.
“So, that’s where
Hart’s and your aliens are. Out there in the big old dark, totally
ignorant of our presence. If they are looking at us, they are seeing
us as we were 1400 years prior to our conversation, about the time
the 1st one-way streets opened in London. Even if they had
instruments capable of analyzing our atmosphere, they would find
signs of life, but nothing that would indicate technology. It is an
immense volume to explore and only by great flights of fancy could
one say realistically that, if there were aliens out there, they
would already have been here. On top of that, someone may have
already stopped by millions of years ago and found nothing of
particular interest or that our atmosphere was not suitable for them
and moved on to more interesting places. Who knows?”
“Are you telling me
we’ll never see any aliens? That you’re going to agree with me?
Like everything’s too far away? That what you’re saying?”
“No. I’m saying that
there will have to be some powerful reason for them to attempt
traveling farther than a few light years from home or, having
accomplished a working warp drive, they will begin with their nearest
promising neighbors. If we’re lucky, that may be us, just as we
have determined they are the closest near analog for us. Now, as for
alien life, I have little doubt we may find that right here in our
own system someday soon. Oh, not the kind of life you’re thinking
about, but life. That would be sufficient to give us great hope for
finding it elsewhere in the galaxy and the impetus to set about
looking for it in earnest. I suspect, if we encounter anything of
alien origin, it will be in the form of probes. Machines. Maybe
like Von Neumann self replicating probes. They could even be seeding
machines. There’s a thought to sleep with. 🔺
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